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Professor Ethan Mollick’s Signs and Portents analyzes what AI has achieved, what the effects have been so far, and what we might expect in 2024. To ground ourselves, we can start with two quotes that should inform any estimates about the future. The first is Amara’s Law: “We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.” Social change is slower than technological change. We should not expect to see immediate global effects of AI in a major way, no matter how fast its adoption (and it is remarkably fast), yet we certainly will see it sooner than many people think. ...

Simon Wilson, who’s recently been my go-to person for all AI-related stuff, has an excellent 2023 AI round-up on his website. 2023 was the breakthrough year for Large Language Models (LLMs). I think it’s OK to call these AI—they’re the latest and (currently) most “interesting development in the academic field of Artificial Intelligence that dates back to the 1950s. Here’s my attempt to round up the highlights in one place! The links contained within the post are also valuable. You may know Simon’s website if you are interested in LLMs and AI. If you don’t, I suggest you start following him, preferably via his RSS feed like real hackers do. ...

For those who don’t know me, I’m a demographer. I study population. And my first love in fantasy was, of course, Middle Earth. How many people live in Middle Earth? Being a demographer, I was mainly interested in the data side of things. Tolkien is frustratingly vague about population. He almost never gives us estimates of settlement sizes, and many of the larger metropolises of Middle Earth (like Pelargir) never actually appear on the page. Sizable armies make frequent appearances, yet because his adventurers almost exclusively traverse the wilds of Middle Earth, we rarely see where those soldiers are coming from. ...

The Guardian’s The Winterkeeper: A Lifetime Spent Protecting Yellowstone National Park is a beautiful short documentary I truly enjoyed watching. A little research on Steven Fuller, the protagonist, allowed me to dig out some promising reading material.

Andrej Karpathy has a very well-done Intro to Large Language Models video on YouTube. As a founding member and research scientist at OpenAI and with a two-year hiatus working on Tesla Autopilot, Karpathy is an authority in the field. He is also good at explaining hard things. As a Kahneman reader, I appreciated the Thinking Fast and Slow analogy proposed at about half-length in the video: “System 1” (fast automatic thinking, rapid decisions) is where we’re now; “System 2” (rational, slow thinking, complex decisions) is LLMs next goal. Also, I suspect Karpathy’s intriguing idea of LLMs as the center of a new “operating system style” is not too far off from what will emerge soon. The final segment on AI security and known attack vectors (jailbreaking, prompt injection, data poisoning) is also super interesting. ...

Quoting Jan van den Berg: This weekend we learned that Bram Moolenaar had passed away at the age of 62. And this news affected me more than I expected. Like so many: I did not know Bram personally. But I’ve been using a tool made by Bram for more than half my life — at least weekly, sometimes daily. That tool is a text editor. The best one there is: Vim. ...

Imagine, for a moment, that you are walking along a dirt road in the seventh century Middle East. The sun is hot, the air is dry, your feet are tired. It’s been a long journey, by boat and foot, from your home in Constantinople to where you find yourself now: outside of the walls of the mountainous river city of Antioch. In the bright sunlight, you strain your eyes to catch a distant glimpse of the sight you’ve come all this way to see – and then suddenly, you do. A bright stone pillar, stretching as tall as a church dome with an unsteady-looking wooden platform; and atop it a tiny, bedraggled, flinty old man. ...

Donald Knuth challenged ChatGPT-4 with 20 questions and then submitted the results and his comments to Stephen Wolfram. The whole thing is fascinating in many ways and worth reading. Some remarkable quotes: Of course these are extremely impressive responses, sometimes astonishingly so; thus I totally understand why you and others have been paying attention to it. The most immediate impression is the quality of the wordsmithing. It’s way better than 99% of copy that people actually write. It’s definitely not like a Markov model that uses the most predictable way to continue what’s already been said. On the other hand there are surprising lapses there too, as typical of any large system. ...

Adorable, functional, often internet-connected desktop bots like those below are hand-crafted by Mohit Bhoite in San Francisco, California. It pleasantly surprised me that they’re built as a purely artistic expression. All sculptures (as Mohit rightfully refers to them) are unique and not for sale. Check them all out on his website (via).

Today I learned about a precious little macOS command line tool, networkQuality. The networkQuality tool is a built-in tool released in macOS Monterey that can help diagnose network issues and measure network performance. Usage: networkQuality -v Example output: ==== SUMMARY ==== Uplink capacity: 44.448 Mbps (Accuracy: High) Downlink capacity: 162.135 Mbps (Accuracy: High) Responsiveness: Low (73 RPM) (Accuracy: High) Idle Latency: 50.125 milliseconds (Accuracy: High) Interface: en0 Uplink bytes transferred: 69.921 MB Downlink bytes transferred: 278.340 MB Uplink Flow count: 16 Downlink Flow count: 12 Start: 13/05/2023, 15:04:13 End: 13/05/2023, 15:04:27 OS Version: Version 13.3.1 (a) (Build 22E772610a) It supports Apple’s Private Relay, offers some configuration options and allows setting up your own server. More info here. ...