Professor Ethan Mollick’s Signs and Portents analyzes what AI has achieved, what the effects have been so far, and what we might expect in 2024. To ground ourselves, we can start with two quotes that should inform any estimates about the future. The first is Amara’s Law: “We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.” Social change is slower than technological change....
Another achievement I unlocked with the recent website update is the newsletter switch from Substack to a fantastic and independent provider, Buttondown. That required updating all the “subscribe to my newsletter” links. We’re talking 5K posts, all saved as individual files in the same directory. The bash command that did that for me is: find content/post/*.md -type f -exec \ sed -i .bak 's|https://nicolaiarocci.substack.com|https://buttondown.email/nicolaiarocci|g' {} + It is pretty straightforward. find looks for all markdown files in the content/post/ directory....
I have to say, I’ve found no greater professional joy than working with a tight group of people to ship and support our own products. And for those products to find people willing to trade their own hard earned treasure for a little bit of ours. Betting on an idea — and seeing it through — is enormously fulfilling. The creative and intellectual stimulation is beyond compare. Especially when you’re the first customer for anything you make....
During the Christmas/New Year break, I achieved my goal of updating my website with a new theme. I loved Casper, the previous one I ran for a very long time, but it has not been updated in years and looks abandoned. I wanted new features like fuzzy search, archive and tags pages, cover images, table of contents, title anchors, and more. Also, the old theme kept me anchored to an ancient Hugo version, something I felt uncomfortable with....
Bring back self-hosted blogs, reinstall a feed reader, make your feed icon prominent on your blog. Blogs + Atom/RSS is the best decentralized social media system we’ve ever had! And yes I am saying that as co-author of ActivityPub: self hosted blogs is the best decentralized social networking we’ve had. – Christine Lemmer-Webber
Simon Wilson, who’s recently been my go-to person for all AI-related stuff, has an excellent 2023 AI round-up on his website. 2023 was the breakthrough year for Large Language Models (LLMs). I think it’s OK to call these AI—they’re the latest and (currently) most “interesting development in the academic field of Artificial Intelligence that dates back to the 1950s. Here’s my attempt to round up the highlights in one place!...
Yesterday evening, we watched The Vast of the Night, and what a pleasant surprise it was. One night, in a small New Mexico town, a girl who works at a local radio station and an older reporter boy listen to a recording of some strange noises. Through the radio and its listeners, throughout a single night, they uncover a series of sighting stories that, from clue to clue and radio testimony to radio testimony, bring them close to uncovering something big....
I read 24 books for a total of 7070 pages in 2023. That’s seven more books than last year, which is quite an outstanding result considering the seemingly unstoppable decline in book reading I have suffered in recent years. Most have been fiction books, and that’s something new and influential with the final result, as I tend to read non-fiction more slowly. The bad news is that I did not review most of the books I read this year, and that sucks....
Yesterday was a beautiful, sunny, cold winter Sunday. I felt like going out and enjoying nature, so I took a solo hike in the Foreste Casentinesi National Park, about an hour’s drive from home. This one marks my very first technology-assisted hiking adventure. It may seem weird for someone who’s been hiking for so long, is a notorious geek and is a professional computer programmer to have never used technology before....
For those who don’t know me, I’m a demographer. I study population. And my first love in fantasy was, of course, Middle Earth. How many people live in Middle Earth? Being a demographer, I was mainly interested in the data side of things. Tolkien is frustratingly vague about population. He almost never gives us estimates of settlement sizes, and many of the larger metropolises of Middle Earth (like Pelargir) never actually appear on the page....